"Nobody Knows Anything" - William Goldman http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Goldman
This guy had a big role in the movies All The President, Butch Cassidy And The Sundance Kid, The Princess Bride (he wrote the book), and a bunch more great stuff.
First batter gets on first, and is promptly thrown out stealing second. The next batter hits a double. If the first batter had not been thrown out at second, how many runs would have scored when the second batter had finished hitting?
A. 0
B. 1
C. 2
D. Cannot say
You don't know. We don't know if the runner was safe at second, or still at first. Who knows what the manager, catcher and pitcher would have decided to do? Maybe the other manager, batter and runner would have had different ideas? Two batters, and we have NO IDEA how history might have changed. Now, imagine a complex system where variables or decisions are altered.
So, what if the Indians had had a mission statement that read: "Our organization is committed to winning our division each year, resulting in a sold out stadium every day."
I can tell you how things *have* turned out. Pretty bad. I can name, for certain, six players on the active roster: Sizemore (on the DL), Hafner, Carmona, Choo, Shoppack, and Peralta. These other guys playing these September games have no meaning to me. Most of them will never be in an Indians uniform again.
So, if the stadium was full, and it could have been - that's been proven, they'd have more revenues: more seats sold, parking, concessions, higher ticket prices I believe, better TV and radio ratings, etc... Could all this have paid for a Manny, and a Thome, and maybe different strategy on CC, certainly on Cliff Lee, Casey Blake, Victor Martinez...
Friday, September 11, 2009
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